ULI South Carolina – Capital Markets Conference in Kiawah 9-30-2014

November 3, 2014

Keynote Presentation:  The Millennial Generation’s Influence on Real Estate Demand

by Gregg Logan, Managing Director, RCLCO

  • 1980-81 to 1996 Millennial Generation and their influence on real estate demand.
  • US is older, more unequal, more diverse, more tolerant, less married, less religious, less socially mobile today.
  • Millennials represent 24% of national population—80,000,000
  • Today they are in rental housing—reputation for smaller households, delayed marriages, delayed childbearing, lifestyle centered, more diverse, more liberal, more impatient, economic mobility, frequently changing jobs.
  • 39% likely to live in mid size or big city, 38% say they will end up in apartment, duplex or TH upon their next move.
  • Millennial influence on real estate:
    • Apartments-smaller units at lower $ rents, High square footage in good locations, micro units. MF for sale—demand for “urban” owner occupied housing.
    • Homebuilding—growing influence on for sale market—tension btw urban location and single family detached housing preferences.
    • Community development—reported preference for urban or urban like places.
    • Retail-on line shopping, smaller stores—more like warehouses. Millennials are driving the recovery in MF dev. Next 3-5 years, millennials and MF market—location/neighborhood as primary amenity-place where there is an educated population and growth in professional and business service jobs, lower cost of living, high turnover, less established markets with substantial institutions, hospitals, universities—Austin, Charlotte, Nashville.
  • Millennials do want to be homeowners. Historically, 1st time buyers are 40% of the market, currently are 28%.
  • Millennial population is large but household formations have been weak. 32% of mil have stopped buying from companies that have unacceptable social practices.
  • Single family detached is still the most preferable housing type.