Joel Kotkin—author of The Next Hundred Million, America in 2050

Notes from a presentation to True Homes, January, 2013

What are great cities?—where you can go and change your position in life, are offered upward mobility.

U.S. Growth Trends—there is a shift to affordable, business friendly states and places.  Migration of educated workers and a new generation. Immigration.  Suburban-lower density focused.  People are going to places that are aspirational.

Largest domestic migration gains—2010-2011–Texas, Florida, Arizona, N.C., Colorado.  Migration losses—New York, New Jersey, California.

Population growth 2000-2010—Charlotte (30%), Atlanta (24%),

Net domestic migration leaders 2010-2011: Austin, Tampa, San Antonio, New Orleans, Charlotte and Denver.

Charlotte gained its population growth from Chicago, the Northeast and California.  We lose population to Atlanta and Houston.

People coming to Charlotte due to housing affordability.

In Charlotte, 58% of the people live in suburbs.  A majority of immigrants in US now live in the suburbs.  Millenials prefer to live in the suburbs—85% want to get married and 77% want to have children.

Millenials (born btw 1983 and 2003), particularly those born in early ‘80’s are just now entering the housing market due to the poor economy, but they will be a strong segment of the home buying market.

Coming Next—Multi-generational suburb—“suburbia will be a melting pot, not just by race, but age and ethnicity.”—Randall Lewis

There will continue to be a need to lessen commutes, create more housing options and build more self-sufficient communities.

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